The Martingales Probability and Casino Strategy
There are a few articles about the Martingale System on this website, however here I wanted to cover a little bit more information on Martingales Probability and the flaws of using this method in an online casino.
But before we start a word on randomness, at the heart of the martingale strategy is a requirement for randomness, it is a system that will fail very badly in the light of any bias. So be sure your casino is fair and random and beware leaving your luck in the hands of a random number generator – if only for your own piece of mind.
The concept of the martingale strategy is quite straight forward, you play consistently on a single bet type – usually 50/50 one like odd/even or red/black. You are relying on the low probabilities of repetition and on a mathematical inequality. The amount – S is put on this single event, say on red being spun, if the bet does not win then the Stake (S) is doubled to S2 on the second spin. The third spin will require 4S (double the last bet) if it loses and so on, doubling the bet until the win.
When the winning bet does occur then the final amount will exceed the losses from all the previous games, a fact which is actually algebraically provable.
Here’s some sample odds from American Roulette (the odds for European are slightly different but not greatly)
Some Martingales Probability
For example, the probability of black occurring
- 2 times in a row – 22.43%
- 3 times in a row – 10.62%
- 4 times in a row – 5.03 %
- 5 times in a row – 2.38%
When we look at this system, the mathematical certainty of doubling the bet bringing a win eventually, and the low probability of consecutive repetition of the same color – it looks extremely tempting and some will say infallible.
There are problems though, as mentioned it suffers badly if there is any bias although it could be argued that any strategy would. The reliance on randomness though makes playing ordinary online casinos with their computer generated spins less than appealing. It should only be used in a real life casino or where you can play online roulette here – DublinBet which is a real online casino from dublin played in real time.
There are however some problems which actually exist outside the realms of probability and mathematical certainty of the Martingale system. The system actually carries a major risk of consuming all your cash before paying out, it can be surprising how many times you’ll see long consecutive streaks of the same color for instance. Be careful how you try this if you do play online roulette
Even with sufficient funds you could find yourself in the position of placing an enormous bet to make a very small profit. If your nerve fails you, the house blocks your bet or you do not continue doubling your stake for any reason – then you lose. These are very real reasons combined with the fact that wins are small but regular, that make the Martingale system great in the land of probability but more flawed in the real world.
Roulette probabilities
Some facts about Roulette probabilities, different bets have different probabilities of winning and losing. However, to get a better idea about roulette probabilities you need to understand the game. First thing to understand is that every spin is an independent event and past results in no way influence future outcomes. For every spin, the probability of each bet remains same.
The probability of getting any number in the wheel is always same, but the probability of winning may change. You can place your bet in different ways (in more than 10 ways), Different kinds of bets have different probabilities of being successful or not. Roulette probabilities are different than coin toss test. In a coin toss, there is always 50-50 chance of getting head or tail. However, if you toss the coin 10 times, the head may win every time. Still, the probability is equal for both head and tails. In roulette the probability of coming up any of the 37 slots has same odds. The probabilities of different bets are different which are listed below:
- Probability of winning the bet on a single number is only 2.7%. As this bet carries the lowest probability of being successful, it has the highest return on the bet.
- Probability of being successful with a bet on two numbers is 5.41%.
- When the player bets on three numbers or on a row, the probability of winning is 8.11%.
- Betting on four numbers is 10.81% likely to be successful.
- A bet on Six Numbers or on Two Rows has a 16.22% of being successful.
- Betting on Nine numbers or Three Rows has 24.32% chance of becoming a winner.
- Probability of winning with a bet on twelve numbers or a Column, or Four Rows or a Third has the same chance of winning- 32.43%.
- Even Money bets have the highest odds of winning which is 48.65%. There are four even money bets- Eighteen numbers, Black/Red, Even/Odd, and High/Low.
All these probabilities are measured on a single zero wheel which is also called European roulette. However, in American roulette which has two zeroes, the probabilities are a bit lower than these numbers. Now, let’s look what the roulette probabilities actually mean. 2.7% probability means than you are likely to lose the bet 97.3 times if you play it 100 times. That’s why you should place your money on high probability bets which are even money bets. Not even these bets has more than or equal to 50% chance of winning, still such bet has much more higher odds than any other bet. The house always enjoys advantage of higher probability than the players. That’s why they can make money actually.
However, when you will play roulette, keep roulette probability of each kind of bet. You should minimize your risks. That’s why even money bets in a European table is the relatively safest bets. It is better to place your money on one of the even money bets and follow a certain roulette system such as Martingale or Paroli. Just be sure to know the roulette probabilities before starting to play. Also consider that computer based systems can also be altered so that they’re probabilities are skewed, if this is a concern then use the live tables available on some online roulette sites which are less likely to be controlled by a Random number generator or computer program.
