Winning at Roulette – a Specific Scenario

I’m sure most people would argue that gambling causes more problems than it solves, but there is a hypothetical situation often examined in relation to gambling. Here’s the idea – consider a problem, John has promised he’ll take his girlfriend on a trip to Paris this weekend. Unfortunately the trip is going to cost £600 but John only has half of that £300, now it’s make or break time his girlfriend (after being let down many, many times has given him an ultimatum – Paris or bye, bye.)

So John has to raise an extra £300 and he has to raise it very quickly, the casino wheel beckons. Now you might think gambling is probably not a great way to solve this particular issue, but actually it does have some merits. The problem with gambling in any form is when you stop using your brain. Reckless, wild gambling sprees inevitably end up with similar losses purely because any winning streak is inevitably taken over by an equally likely losing streak.

Rule of 5 Roulette System

So how would John approach this problem to best maximise his chances of success? Well in all these situations – it doesn’t matter what form of gambling, if the odds are against you which they inevitably are, you need to minimise the number of bets you place. Your scenario should be to reach yoru target as quickly as possible in order to minimise the houses edge.

Roulette Play Number 1

Consider this strategy, John takes his £300 walks straight into the casino and slaps the entire amount on the even money black. Out of 37 slots, 18 of them are black so he his chances of winning are 18/37 or if you prefer 48.6% of the time he will win. So if black comes up, John can cash in his chips and leave the casino immediately (this bit is very important!) If it comes up red well he’s obviously lost the lot and possibly the girl. A risky play certainly, but actually this all or nothing approach represents some of the best odds that any gamble can offer.

Let’s look at an alternative….

Roulette Play Number 2

How about this method, divide your initial £300 into equal stakes and place on a single number bet and hope you win one. Well single number bets pay out at 35 to 1, so in order to make his dream trip John needs to ensure he wins £600. This would amount to 600/35 which equals a stake of £17.14, but to make it simpler lets say he’s going to keep betting £20 on a single number until he either wins which would payout 35*20=£700, or he admits defeat and leaves the casino.

Do you think the odds would be any better with this method? It certainly is not as quick and final as the previous method, you are increasing the number of chances you get at reaching your goal at the cost of severely increasing the odds against it happening each spin.

To calculate the chances of success we must first work out the odds that all of Johns bets lose, each bet would lose 36 times out of 37, so the chance they would all lose is in fact (36/37)²º = .58 which mean you have a 58% chance of losing with all your bets. So if you choose this second method, then you will definitely be in the casino longer whatever happens but ultimately your chance of success is 42% – quite significantly less that the 48% chance of success with the bolder approach.

In essence although the odds vary and fluctuate, whatever options you pick you will never beat the situation of a solitary bet on the best odds that the house will offer. The more you bet in this scenario, the less your chances of achieving your goal. Go and try it if you like, the Dublin bet is a real casino but you can play online and even the free game is linked to the actual game being played live in the casino. It’s a great place on Fitzwilliam Street well recommended if you ever find yourself in Dublin. Anyway pick whichever scenario you wish and run though it using the free game – you just have to pick a username and you can play it directly Dublin bet free game . Don’t try any methods on the real money game though until you’ve thought them through, and remember these odds don’t necessarily apply to normal online casinos as the spins are generated from computer algorithms that could vary a lot.

Roulette Systems – Martingale Strategy

There is one betting system that is by far the most popular in roulette and that is the martingale strategy. In fact the system is nearly as old as the game of roulette itself, it’s certainly dates back to at least the 18th century and possibly before. It’s not very complicated although it has a host of variants which can be quite difficult to follow correctly, but at it’s heart the martingale is merely a progression system.

Does the Martingale Strategy Guarantee you Win?

You will find Martingale on many web sites, click around and you’ll see ads for ‘ secret betting systems’, surefire winning gambling strategies and similar mad claims. Funnily enough many of them require no money and are offering this free system as a service to gamblers – yeah right !

First of all whatever you read, whatever I write, there is one important point to remember.

There is no mathematical system in existence that can overcome the house edge.

And that includes the martingale strategy. The problem with the martingale is that it sounds so plausible. For example you place a $1 bet on red, if it loses then you place $2, then $4, $8 and so on doubling each time you lose. Therefore when you do actually win you are guaranteed a profit albeit a small one – sounds excellent doesn’t it? As long as you keep doubling you cannot lose.

If you want to see how you can actually lose, have a look at this video I made !
Playing the Martingale Strategy

Everything about Martingale strategy shouts a sure-fire winner but alas simple things like a house limit mean that in practice it isn’t. Of course this doesn’t mean that you can’t win on roulette with Martingale, but that’s the beauty of roulette – the house edge is not that big, so you can also win by getting blind drunk and throwing stupid bets around the table whilst pretending your James Bond.

It’s not a bad strategy though as long as you realise it doesn’t guarantee anything. In fact casinos are not that keen on system players of any sort as their disciplined betting patterns means that you regularly win small amounts. That big loss, or unlucky streak that balances up the winnings using the martingale strategy can take an awful lot of time to appear.

One croupier told me that what tends to happen is that someone using this strategy will often come in for week after week, slowly accumulating small profits. But when the time comes (and it will come) that they suffer their huge loss trying to stick to the martingale system – the flaw in the strategy will be revealed and they never play again.

The problem is that consecutive events are much more common that you would realise, to see 8 reds appear is actually not that unusual if you play regularly. One croupier told me that he had actually seen 21 consecutive reds once appear, that would be impossible to cover using martingale. In fact 8 consecutive spins will wipe most people out, or breach the house limits. Here martingale=heavy loss. So play wisely there is something to be said for most of these roulette strategies but they don’t change the odds. You can actually check out some sample scenarios here where we have developed a simulator of The Martingale System

Oh and a final note, those web pages you see explaining this system often penned by a professional gambler who urges you to keep the martingale system quiet, (before posting it on a web site). You may have wondered what he seeks to achieve, well it’s very simple – he will have signed up with a selection of rubbish casinos that pay huge commissions on any players he sends them – these online casinos will then be the ‘recommended ones’ where the secret martingale system will work best!

It can be fun to play online roulette , but play sensibly and don’t get deceived by these systems.

This Post is also available in German – Roulettesysteme – Martingale-Strategie