The Martingales Probability and Casino Strategy
| Author : AnonymousThere are a few articles about the Martingale System on this website, however here I wanted to cover a little bit more information on Martingales Probability and the flaws of using this method in an online casino.
But before we start a word on randomness, at the heart of the martingale strategy is a requirement for randomness, it is a system that will fail very badly in the light of any bias. So be sure your casino is fair and random and beware leaving your luck in the hands of a random number generator – if only for your own piece of mind.
The concept of the martingale strategy is quite straight forward, you play consistently on a single bet type – usually 50/50 one like odd/even or red/black. You are relying on the low probabilities of repetition and on a mathematical inequality. The amount – S is put on this single event, say on red being spun, if the bet does not win then the Stake (S) is doubled to S2 on the second spin. The third spin will require 4S (double the last bet) if it loses and so on, doubling the bet until the win.
When the winning bet does occur then the final amount will exceed the losses from all the previous games, a fact which is actually algebraically provable.
Here’s some sample odds from American Roulette (the odds for European are slightly different but not greatly)
Some Martingales Probability
For example, the probability of black occurring
- 2 times in a row – 22.43%
- 3 times in a row – 10.62%
- 4 times in a row – 5.03 %
- 5 times in a row – 2.38%
When we look at this system, the mathematical certainty of doubling the bet bringing a win eventually, and the low probability of consecutive repetition of the same color – it looks extremely tempting and some will say infallible.
There are problems though, as mentioned it suffers badly if there is any bias although it could be argued that any strategy would. The reliance on randomness though makes playing ordinary online casinos with their computer generated spins less than appealing. It should only be used in a real life casino or where you can play online roulette here – DublinBet which is a real online casino from dublin played in real time.
There are however some problems which actually exist outside the realms of probability and mathematical certainty of the Martingale system. The system actually carries a major risk of consuming all your cash before paying out, it can be surprising how many times you’ll see long consecutive streaks of the same color for instance. Be careful how you try this if you do play online roulette
Even with sufficient funds you could find yourself in the position of placing an enormous bet to make a very small profit. If your nerve fails you, the house blocks your bet or you do not continue doubling your stake for any reason – then you lose. These are very real reasons combined with the fact that wins are small but regular, that make the Martingale system great in the land of probability but more flawed in the real world.
A Basic Introduction to Some Roulette tactics
| Author : AnonymousAlbert Einstein said once, “You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it.” Since its introduction, players have tried to devise tactics for winning at roulette. Including the many variations of Martingale strategy have been used so far. However, no strategy has yet proved to be effective. According to probabilistic statistics, no strategy can ever beat the house advantage.
Tactics for Roulette
However, there are some tactics which can help a player to minimize the losses and maximize the odds of winning. Andres Martinez, journalist and author has describes one such tactic in his book ‘24/7’. The method is to divide your session amount into 35 parts and bet on a specific number for 35 consecutive spins. If the number comes up within 35 spins the player will win back the original amount of money and can continue to play with house money. Nevertheless, in an American roulette with 38 pockets the probability of winning within 35 rounds is 60.68%.
There are some more roulette tactics which can be pretty much effective.
Place your bet on Red only:
For a specific number of spins, placing the bet on red or any other even money bets can be a good tactic. For example, if you place your bet on red for 38 consecutive rounds, the probability of the ball landing on red each time is 47.37%. Moreover, if you apply standard normal distribution, you will see some surprising probability rates. The probability that the ball will land on red at least ten times among 38 spins is 99%. There is 83% probability that the ball will land on red at least 15 times. And 50% probability that 18 times it will be red. To reach the break even point winning 19 spins are required. However, the chance of winning increases a little bit when you play in a European roulette as it has one 0 less than American roulette.
Multiple Bets
This tactic is a combination of the ‘red’ strategy and Martingale system. The catch is you have to bet on either ‘red and odd’ or ‘black and even’. Consider each bet as a separate event. If you lose in a spin, double the initial amount. If you win than go back to the start and place the initial amount of bets again. This tactic requires you to play for a long time and obviously you will need a pretty handsome amount of money. In the long run, you may even lose money. But sometimes it works.
Bet on Dozens
You can apply this roulette tactic in two ways- either places your bets on single dozens or on double dozens. In single dozen versions, start from the minimum amount possible placed on one dozen. For double dozen version places you bet on two dozens, as the name suggests. However the amount of betting should be half of the amount you use on single dozen bet.
Whatever roulette tactics you use, always keep it in mind that the house has the advantage in every condition. It’s simply unbeatable always remember that when you play online roulette. So do not count on any roulette tactic for sure. However, applying roulette tactics will help you to better understand the mechanism of this game.
