I’m sure most people would argue that gambling causes more problems than it solves, but there is a hypothetical situation often examined in relation to gambling. Here’s the idea – consider a problem, John has promised he’ll take his girlfriend on a trip to Paris this weekend. Unfortunately the trip is going to cost £600 but John only has half of that £300, now it’s make or break time his girlfriend (after being let down many, many times has given him an ultimatum – Paris or bye, bye.)
So John has to raise an extra £300 and he has to raise it very quickly, the casino wheel beckons. Now you might think gambling is probably not a great way to solve this particular issue, but actually it does have some merits. The problem with gambling in any form is when you stop using your brain. Reckless, wild gambling sprees inevitably end up with similar losses purely because any winning streak is inevitably taken over by an equally likely losing streak.
So how would John approach this problem to best maximise his chances of success? Well in all these situations – it doesn’t matter what form of gambling, if the odds are against you which they inevitably are, you need to minimise the number of bets you place. Your scenario should be to reach yoru target as quickly as possible in order to minimise the houses edge.
Roulette Play Number 1
Consider this strategy, John takes his £300 walks straight into the casino and slaps the entire amount on the even money black. Out of 37 slots, 18 of them are black so he his chances of winning are 18/37 or if you prefer 48.6% of the time he will win. So if black comes up, John can cash in his chips and leave the casino immediately (this bit is very important!) If it comes up red well he’s obviously lost the lot and possibly the girl. A risky play certainly, but actually this all or nothing approach represents some of the best odds that any gamble can offer.
Let’s look at an alternative….
Roulette Play Number 2
How about this method, divide your initial £300 into equal stakes and place on a single number bet and hope you win one. Well single number bets pay out at 35 to 1, so in order to make his dream trip John needs to ensure he wins £600. This would amount to 600/35 which equals a stake of £17.14, but to make it simpler lets say he’s going to keep betting £20 on a single number until he either wins which would payout 35*20=£700, or he admits defeat and leaves the casino.
Do you think the odds would be any better with this method? It certainly is not as quick and final as the previous method, you are increasing the number of chances you get at reaching your goal at the cost of severely increasing the odds against it happening each spin.
To calculate the chances of success we must first work out the odds that all of Johns bets lose, each bet would lose 36 times out of 37, so the chance they would all lose is in fact (36/37)²º = .58 which mean you have a 58% chance of losing with all your bets. So if you choose this second method, then you will definitely be in the casino longer whatever happens but ultimately your chance of success is 42% – quite significantly less that the 48% chance of success with the bolder approach.
In essence although the odds vary and fluctuate, whatever options you pick you will never beat the situation of a solitary bet on the best odds that the house will offer. The more you bet in this scenario, the less your chances of achieving your goal. Go and try it if you like, the Dublin bet is a real casino but you can play online and even the free game is linked to the actual game being played live in the casino. It’s a great place on Fitzwilliam Street well recommended if you ever find yourself in Dublin. Anyway pick whichever scenario you wish and run though it using the free game – you just have to pick a username and you can play it directly Dublin bet free game . Don’t try any methods on the real money game though until you’ve thought them through, and remember these odds don’t necessarily apply to normal online casinos as the spins are generated from computer algorithms that could vary a lot.