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Some people would have you believe this is true, they are convinced it’s possible to spot patterns based on a dealer (rather than the roulette wheel). The theory goes like this, you track a dealer who looks like he rarely varies his speed when spinning. Advocates of dealer tracking say that it is possible to gain an edge by carefully observing these particular dealers. They believe that they can predict (obviously within a few numbers) where the ball is going to land on a particular spin.
This obviously relies on careful timing, they have to take note of where the ball is released – so they would put no bets down until the ball is spun. You are allowed to place bets whilst the ball is spinning up until the no bets call, but you have to be fairly sharp to cover the combinations in a short space of time. Remember nobody has ever claimed that they can predict the exact number in this way but merely which section or group of numbers will be hit. In fact even if you can predict within quite a large range you will significantly improve your chances and eliminate the house edge. Simply put – if you can track any number of spins from a dealer then you are going to win money as long as you bet accordingly.
So can it happen, can people really track specific dealers? Well there are plenty of people who say that they can. When you think about it anyone doing a repetitive task like this will probably to some extent fall into a kind of routine. There is a very good chance that the dealer will release the ball and spin the wheel with pretty much the same force over and over again which adds some credence to the theory.
But I remain sceptical about this one, there are just too many factors to consider, the random scatter of the ball which can be caused by anything inside the wheel, dividers, ornamentation any little ridge or bump can induce random chaos. I suspect there’s simply too much to compute, to much to analyse and too little time to do it all in. I know people who assure me it can be done, but as always with any form of gambling ‘sure thing’ it’s normally best to take these with a small ‘pinch of salt’.
The one thing that I should add is there is an obvious opportunity here for checking out something like dealer or wheel tracking by using the internet. There are now several real, online casinos who provide real time games online (that is although you play online via a video feed, you are actually playing alongside the people physically in the casino). Here you can pick a dealer to watch, sign up for the free game to watch, and analyse the spins for yourself. You won’t have to spend hours on end in a casino and you can have computers and computational aids sitting next to you in your own home as you watch.
This Post is available in German – Croupier beobachten