Some facts about Roulette probabilities, different bets have different probabilities of winning and losing. If you’re not quite sure what that entails, then there’s a great little introduction to probability here which is very well presented. However, to get a better idea about roulette probabilities you need to understand the game. First thing to understand is that every spin is an independent event and past results in no way influence future outcomes.
For every spin, the probability of each bet remains same.
However although the probability of getting any number in the wheel is always same. Your probability of winning may change depending on what bets you place.
You can place your bet in different ways (actually more than 10 ways), Different kinds of bets have different probabilities of being successful or not. Roulette probabilities are different than coin toss test. In a coin toss, there is always 50-50 chance of getting head or tail. However, if you toss the coin 10 times, the head may win every time. Still, the probability is equal for both head and tails. In roulette the probability of coming up any of the 37 slots has same odds.
List of Roulette Probabilities and Odds
The probabilities of different bets are different which are listed below:
- Probability of winning the bet on a single number is only 2.7%. As this bet carries the lowest probability of being successful, it has the highest return on the bet.
- Probability of being successful with a bet on two numbers is 5.41%.
- When the player bets on three numbers or on a row, the probability of winning is 8.11%.
- Betting on four numbers is 10.81% likely to be successful.
- A bet on Six Numbers or on Two Rows has a 16.22% of being successful.
- Betting on Nine numbers or Three Rows has 24.32% chance of becoming a winner.
- Probability of winning with a bet on twelve numbers or a Column, or Four Rows or a Third has the same chance of winning- 32.43%.
- Even Money bets have the highest odds of winning which is 48.65%. There are four even money bets- Eighteen numbers, Black/Red, Even/Odd, and High/Low.
All these probabilities are measured on a single zero wheel which is also called European roulette. However, in American roulette which has two zeroes, the probabilities are a bit lower than these numbers. Now, let’s look what the roulette probabilities actually mean. 2.7% probability means than you are likely to lose the bet 97.3 times if you play it 100 times. That’s why you should place your money on high probability bets which are even money bets. Not even these bets has more than or equal to 50% chance of winning, still such bet has much more higher odds than any other bet.
It means that any casino player faces what’s called a negative expectation, we are mathematically expected to lose. However, obviously this doesn’t happen all the time! The longer you play at a roulette table, the more likely the negative expectation is likely to happen. Which is one reason that the most profitable roulette strategy will always be the shortest one. The house will always enjoy this advantage of higher probability than the players. That’s why they can guarantee to make money in the end, despite lucky players and winning streaks.
However, when you will play roulette, keep the roulette probability of each kind of bet in mind. You should minimize your risks. That’s why even money bets in a European table are the relatively safest bets. It is better to place your money on one of the even money bets and follow a certain roulette system such as Martingale or Paroli. Just be sure to know the roulette probabilities before starting to play. Also consider that computer based systems can also be altered so that they’re probabilities are skewed, if this is a concern then use the live tables available on some online roulette sites which are less likely to be controlled by a Random number generator or computer program.
If you want to know what is the best bet in roulette? Well it’s quite simple, you place your entire stake on an even money bet. You then leave, win or lose. It’s the strategy that the casino’s hate the most and why they insist on house tables. Of course, it’s not much fun and whatever happens you’ll have a short evenings entertainment. Yet it’s without doubt the most successful roulette strategy you can follow, as long as you win of course !!
Really interesting thanks. It’s worth considering these probabilities when placing your bets. Perhaps my tactic of scattering chips all over the table randomly needs revisiting !!